Table 2:

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the weekly number of first cancer treatment recipients per thousand people with cancer*

ParameterRate ratio (95% CI)
Relative change in rate (prepandemic slope)0.9998 (0.9997–0.9999)1.0008 (1.0007–1.0010)1.0004 (1.0002–1.0005)0.9996 (0.9995–0.9997)
Relative change in mean rate at the start of the pandemic (relative change in intercept)0.91 (0.88–0.95)1.30 (1.23–1.36)1.13 (1.07–1.19)0.85 (0.80–0.91)
Relative change in rate (further change in slope from prepandemic to the pandemic)1.004 (1.002–1.006)0.991 (0.989–0.994)0.996 (0.994–0.998)1.004 (1.001–1.006)
  • * Parameters were estimated from segmented Poisson regression using the standard parameterization. For each parameter, we report the ratio and the associated 95% confidence interval. The regression coefficients can be interpreted as follows: the rate of receiving surgery as first cancer treatment over the next year per thousand patients was decreasing marginally by 0.02% for each week for those diagnosed with cancer in the prepandemic period, followed by a decline in mean 1-year surgical rate of 9% for those diagnosed at the start of the pandemic, then a weekly rise of 0.4% (i.e., 1.004 × 0.9998 = 1.004 or an 0.4% overall weekly increase) for those diagnosed with cancer during the pandemic. Details of this model can be found in Appendix 3 (available at The prepandemic period is from Jan. 3, 2016, to Mar. 14, 2020, and the pandemic period is from Mar. 15, 2020, to Nov. 7, 2020.