Comparison of different inclusion criteria for lung cancer screening between 1998 and 2015 with a shift scenario (n = 8938)*
| Variable | USPSTF | CTFPHC | Quebec pilot (55–74 yr + PLCOm2012 ≥ 2%) | Quebec pilot (50–74 yr + PLCOm2012 ≥ 2%) | PLCOm2012 ≥ 1.51% | PLCOm2012 ≥ 1.7% | PLCOm2012 ≥ 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total no. of participants eligible to be screened, n (%) (n = 8938) | 4445 (49.7) | 2523 (28.2) | 1931 (21.6) | 2045 (22.9) | 2733 (30.6) | 2430 (27.2) | 2064 (23.1) |
| Total no. of LDCTs | 40448 | 19697 | 15201 | 16672 | 24732 | 21020 | 16777 |
| No. of lung cancers detected, n (%) (n = 205) | 133 (64.9) | 101 (49.3) | 99 (48.3) | 103 (50.2) | 114 (55.6) | 110 (53.7) | 103 (50.2) |
| No. of LDCTs for 1 cancer detected | 304.1 | 195.0 | 153.5 | 161.9 | 216.9 | 191.1 | 162.9 |
| No. of participants screened to detect 1 lung cancer | 33.4 | 25.0 | 19.5 | 19.9 | 24.0 | 22.1 | 20.0 |
| No. of LDCTs before cancer detection per participant | 10.3 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 8.3 |
| No. of LDCTs per cancer-free participant† | 9.1 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.1 |
| Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | 64.9 (57.9–71.4) | 49.3 (42.2–56.3) | 48.3 (41.3–55.4) | 50.2 (43.2–57.3) | 55.6 (48.5–62.5) | 53.7 (46.6–60.6) | 50.2 (43.2–57.3) |
| Specificity, % (95% CI) | 73.4% (73.2–73.7) | 87.1 (86.9–87.3) | 90.0 (89.9–90.2) | 89.1 (88.9–89.2) | 83.8 (83.6–84.0) | 86.2 (86.0–86.4) | 89.0 (88.9–89.2) |
| Positive predictive value, % (95% CI) | 3.0% (2.5–3.5) | 4.2 (3.5–5.0) | 5.1 (4.2–6.2) | 5.0 (4.1–6.1) | 4.2 (3.5– 5.0) | 4.5 (3.7–5.4) | 5.0 (4.1–6.0) |
Note: CTFPHC = Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care, LDCT = low-dose computed tomography, USPSTF = United States Preventive Services Task Force.
↵* We checked eligibility annually. If a participant met the screening criteria, we considered that they had an LDCT on the screening date and an LDCT each year during the next 5 years. If a participant no longer met the screening criteria, they had to complete the remained LDCT.
↵† Only participants with at least 1 LDCT.