Table 1:

Key parameters and data sources

Parameter	Base case value (range)^*	Data sources
Key Lyme disease probability parameters and data sources
Lyme disease
Probability of high-risk exposure	0.628 (0.471–0.786)^†	Personal communication, PHO
LD incidence rates, per 100 000 (varies by age and sex)	2.9–13.9 (0.000029–0.000139)^‡	Nelder et al. 20185
Probability of clinical diagnosis after EM rash, high-risk exposure area	0.583 (0.437–0.729)^‡	Henry et al. 201215
Probability of clinical diagnosis after EM rash, low-risk exposure area	0.261 (0.196–0.326)^†	Henry et al. 201215
Diagnostics
Sensitivity, early localized	0.463 (0.391–0.537)^§	Waddell et al. 201618
Sensitivity, early disseminated	0.897 (0.783–0.954)^§	Waddell et al. 201618
Sensitivity, late disseminated	0.994 (0.957–0.999)^§	Waddell et al. 201618
Specificity, early localized	0.993 (0.983–0.997)^§	Waddell et al. 201618
Specificity, early disseminated	0.997 (0.984–0.999)^§	Waddell et al. 201618
Specificity, late disseminated	0.993 (0.985–0.997)^§	Waddell et al. 201618
Probability of testing (varies by presence or absence of sequelae)	0.402–0.805 (0.30–0.98)^†	Henry et al. 201215
Delay in results	1–2 wk	PHO 201717
Treatment
Treatment efficacy
Erythema migrans	0.85 (0.80–1.00)^‡	Magid et al. 199219
Arthritic sequelae	0.85 (0.40–0.80)^‡	Liu et al. 198920
Cardiac sequelae	0.90 (0.80–1.00)^‡	Steere et al. 199321
Neurologic sequelae	0.90 (0.76–0.97)^‡	Logigian and Steere 199222 Dattwyler et al. 198823 Karlsson et al. 199424
Oral treatment completion	0.90 (0.68–1.00)^†	Magid et al. 199219
IV treatment completion	0.99 (0.75–1.00)^†	Magid et al. 199219
Probability of adverse event, oral	0.04 (0.03–0.05)^†	Shadick et al. 200110
Probability of adverse event, IV	0.06 (0.05–0.08)^†	Shadick et al. 200110
Outcomes
Probability of hospitalization	0.05 (0.04–0.06)^†	Shing et al. 201925
Length of hospitalization, d	7.9 (3.8–12.1)^§	Shing et al. 201925
EM rash	0.80 (0.60–1.00)^†	Shadick et al. 200110
Probability of developing sequelae (varies by LD stage and sex)	0.10–0.17 (0.08–0.21)^†	Unpublished data from cited study26^**
Arthritic sequelae (M, F)	0.56–0.63 (0.41–0.76)^†	Unpublished data from cited study26^**
Cardiac sequelae (F, M)	0.43–0.48 (0.29–0.53)^†	Unpublished data from cited study26^**
Cognitive sequelae (F, M)	0.37–0.44 (0.29–0.58)^†	Unpublished data from cited study26^**
Cranial nerve palsy sequelae (F, M)	0.11–0.24 (0.08–0.26)^†	Unpublished data from cited study26^**
Multiple EM sequelae (M, F)	0.22–0.36 (0.16–0.40)^†	Unpublished data from cited study26^**
Meningitis or polyneuropathy sequelae (F, M)	0.06–0.11 (0.12–0.24)^†	Unpublished data from cited study26^**
Key utility parameters and data sources
Utilities
Healthy, stratified by age and sex	0.62–0.90 (0.38–0.98)^§	Guertin et al. 201813
Arthritic sequelae	0.69 (0.51–0.86)^¶	Shadick et al. 200110
Cardiac sequelae	0.61 (0.38–0.78)^¶	Shadick et al. 200110
Cognitive sequelae	0.60 (0.37–0.73)^¶	Shadick et al. 200110
Erythema migrans	0.80 (0.70–0.93)^¶	Shadick et al. 200110
Cranial nerve palsy	0.61 (0.36–0.81)^¶	Shadick et al. 200110
Meningitis or polyneuropathy	0.52 (0.27–0.73)^¶	Shadick et al. 200110
PTLDS	0.54 (0.30–0.70)^¶	Shadick et al. 200110
Minor adverse events, disutility	0.05 (0.04–0.06)^†	Eckman et al. 199712
Major adverse events, disutility	0.10 (0.08–0.13)^†	Eckman et al. 199712
Oral treatment, disutility	0.01 (0.00–0.01)^†	Eckman et al. 199712
Intravenous treatment, disutility	0.03 (0.02–0.04)^†	Eckman et al. 199712

Note: CI = confidence interval, EM = erythema migrans, F = female, IQR = interquartile range, IV = intravenous, LD = Lyme disease, M = male, PHO = Public Health Ontario, PTLDS = post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome.
↵* Type of range varies by study, as indicated.
↵† Range represents plausible range.
↵‡ Range represents full range.
↵§ Range represents 95% CI.
↵¶ Range represents IQR.
↵** Study authors provided these data.