Base-case results of 100 simulations of 100 000 people in Ontario with lifetime risk of Lyme disease
| Outcomes | Mean incidence per 100 000 (95% CI) | Proportion of mean incidence of total LD infections, %* | Median incidence per 100 000 (IQR) | Proportion of median incidence of total LD infections, %* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total LD infections | 333 (329–337) | 334 (320–346) | ||
| Diagnosed cases | 308 (304–311) | 92.5 | 308 (294–321) | 92.2 |
| Early localized | 107 (105–109) | 32.1 | 108 (100–116) | 32.3 |
| Clinically diagnosed | 44 (43–46) | 13.2 | 45 (38–49) | 13.5 |
| Laboratory-confirmed | 63 (62–64) | 18.9 | 63 (58–68) | 18.9 |
| Early disseminated (laboratory-confirmed) | 137 (134–140) | 41.1 | 137 (129–144) | 41.0 |
| Late disseminated (laboratory-confirmed) | 63 (61–65) | 18.9 | 63 (58–69) | 18.9 |
| Undiagnosed cases | 26 (25–27) | 7.8 | 26 (22–29) | 7.8 |
| Reinfections | 4 (3–4) | 1.2 | 4 (2–5) | 1.2 |
| Sequelae | ||||
| Early disseminated stage | ||||
| Cardiac | 20 (19–20) | 6.0 | 19 (17–22) | 5.9 |
| Cranial nerve palsy | 8 (7–8) | 2.4 | 9 (6–10) | 2.7 |
| Multiple erythema migrans | 12 (12–13) | 3.6 | 12 (10–15) | 3.6 |
| Neurological (meningitis, polyneuropathy) | 4 (3–4) | 1.2 | 3 (2–5) | 0.9 |
| Late disseminated stage | ||||
| Arthritic | 14 (13–15) | 4.2 | 14 (12–16) | 4.2 |
| Cognitive | 9 (9–10) | 2.7 | 9 (7–11) | 2.7 |
| All stages | ||||
| PTLDS | 34 (33–35) | 10.2 | 34 (31–37) | 10.2 |
| QALYS | ||||
| Undiscounted | 112.6 (109.6–115.4) | 113.0 (105.7–120.1) | ||
| Discounted (1.5%) | 84.5 (82.9–86.1) | 84.6 (78.6–88.8) | ||
Note: CI = confidence interval, IQR = interquartile range, LD = Lyme disease, PTLDS = post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome, QALY = quality-adjusted life-year.
↵* Mean and median frequency may not sum up exactly because of rounding.