Table 1:

Descriptions of pandemic scenarios at the time of initial COVID-19 vaccine availability

ScenarioDescription
1The pandemic is still in progress, and sustained community-level COVID-19 outbreaks continue.
2There is a possible new wave of the pandemic with COVID-19 activity rising again after a postpeak period.
3The pandemic is in the postpeak period, and COVID-19 activity remains low.
4AThe pandemic is considered over, but SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate at low levels. There is evidence that the vaccine (or previous infection) provides long-term protection against COVID-19, but a routine vaccination program may be required for new cohorts that are immunologically naive.
4BThe pandemic is considered over, but SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate at low levels. There is evidence that the vaccine (or previous infection) does not provide long-term protection against COVID-19 and a routine vaccination program will be required for much of the population.