Table 2:

Variable estimates and probability distributions for our base-case decision analysis model

ParametersBaseline estimateStandard errorProbability distribution*Data source
Outpatient UATU
 RR of a failed outpatient UATU hysteroscopy0.4120.09LognormalClark et al.31 and chart review
 Outpatient hysteroscopy costs, $15214γ (126.8, 1.2)OCCI
 Physician costs for diagnostic hysteroscopy procedure, $105FixedSchedule of Benefits
 Costs of surgical procedure in UATU$600$150γ (16.0, 37.5)Expert opinion
Further uterine assessment
 Probability0.605β (121.0, 79.0)Chart review
 Cost of further uterine assessment, $690Weighted averageChart review, OCCI, Schedule of Benefits
 Diagnosis obtained§786γ (161.0, 0.48)Chart review
Reordered uterine assessment
 Probability of receiving reordered uterine assessment0.19β (23.0, 98.0)Chart review
 Cost, $599Weighted averageChart review, OCCI, Schedule of Benefits
 Time to diagnosis§14719γ (59.0, 2.0)Chart review
Surgical treatment
 Probability (p1)*.522β (12.0, 11.0)Chart review
 Probability (p2)*0.408β (40.0, 58.0)Chart review
 Probability (p3)*0.443β (35.0, 44.0)Chart review
 Hospital costs, $3514Weighted averageChart review, OCCI
 Surgeon, assistant and anesthesiologist costs, $1038Weighted averageChart review, Schedule of Benefits
 Time to treatment (t1)§15130γ (25.0, 6.0)Chart review
 Time to treatment (t2)§9015γ (38.0, 2.0)Chart review
 Time to treatment (t3)§15217γ (77.0, 2.0)Chart review
  • Note: OCCI = Ontario Case Costing Initiative, RR = relative risk, UATU = uterine assessment and treatment unit.

  • * Probability distributions are presented as γ (shape, scale), β (α, β), and lognormal (lower limit, upper limit); p1–3 represents the respective probabilities in Figure 1.

  • Costs were adjusted to 2018 Canadian dollars.

  • The estimated mean cost of surgical disposables in the UATU. We set the uncertainty around the value at an assumed standard error of 25% of the mean and a γ distribution.

  • § Time is presented in days; t1–3 represents the respective time in Figure 1.