Table 2:

Variable estimates and probability distributions for our base-case decision analysis model

Parameters	Baseline estimate	Standard error	Probability distribution^*	Data source
Outpatient UATU
RR of a failed outpatient UATU hysteroscopy	0.412	0.09	Lognormal	Clark et al.31 and chart review
Outpatient hysteroscopy costs, $^†	152	14	γ (126.8, 1.2)	OCCI
Physician costs for diagnostic hysteroscopy procedure, $^†	105		Fixed	Schedule of Benefits
Costs of surgical procedure in UATU^‡	$600	$150	γ (16.0, 37.5)	Expert opinion
Further uterine assessment
Probability	0.605		β (121.0, 79.0)	Chart review
Cost of further uterine assessment, $^†	690		Weighted average	Chart review, OCCI, Schedule of Benefits
Diagnosis obtained^§	78	6	γ (161.0, 0.48)	Chart review
Reordered uterine assessment
Probability of receiving reordered uterine assessment	0.19		β (23.0, 98.0)	Chart review
Cost, $^†	599		Weighted average	Chart review, OCCI, Schedule of Benefits
Time to diagnosis^§	147	19	γ (59.0, 2.0)	Chart review
Surgical treatment
Probability (p¹)^*	.522		β (12.0, 11.0)	Chart review
Probability (p²)^*	0.408		β (40.0, 58.0)	Chart review
Probability (p³)^*	0.443		β (35.0, 44.0)	Chart review
Hospital costs, $^†	3514		Weighted average	Chart review, OCCI
Surgeon, assistant and anesthesiologist costs, $^†	1038		Weighted average	Chart review, Schedule of Benefits
Time to treatment (t¹)^§	151	30	γ (25.0, 6.0)	Chart review
Time to treatment (t²)^§	90	15	γ (38.0, 2.0)	Chart review
Time to treatment (t³)^§	152	17	γ (77.0, 2.0)	Chart review

Note: OCCI = Ontario Case Costing Initiative, RR = relative risk, UATU = uterine assessment and treatment unit.
↵* Probability distributions are presented as γ (shape, scale), β (α, β), and lognormal (lower limit, upper limit); p^1–3 represents the respective probabilities in Figure 1.
↵† Costs were adjusted to 2018 Canadian dollars.
↵‡ The estimated mean cost of surgical disposables in the UATU. We set the uncertainty around the value at an assumed standard error of 25% of the mean and a γ distribution.
↵§ Time is presented in days; t^1–3 represents the respective time in Figure 1.