Ten-fold cross-validation results for each of 4 machine learning algorithms, minimizing or maximizing various metrics*
| Metric and algorithm | Sensitivity, % | Specificity, % | PPV, % | NPV, % | Accuracy, %† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Misclassification rate | |||||
| C5.0 | 40.9 (31.8–50.7) | 99.3 (98.6–99.7) | 84.9 (71.9–92.8) | 94.8 (93.4–95.9) | 94.4 (93.0–95.5) |
| CaRT | 40.9 (31.8–50.7) | 99.3 (98.6–99.7) | 84.9 (71.9–92.8) | 94.8 (93.4–95.9) | 94.4 (93.0–95.5) |
| CHAID | 40.0 (30.9–49.8) | 99.3 (98.6–99.7) | 84.6 (71.4–92.7) | 94.7 (93.3–95.9) | 94.3 (92.9–95.5) |
| LASSO | 40.9 (31.8–50.7) | 99.3 (98.6–99.7) | 84.9 (71.9–92.8) | 94.8 (93.4–95.9) | 94.4 (93.0–95.5) |
| F1 score | |||||
| C5.0 | 61.8 (52.0–70.8) | 96.5 (95.2–97.4) | 61.8 (52.0–70.8) | 96.5 (95.2–97.4) | 93.5 (92.0–94.8) |
| CaRT | 60.9 (51.1–69.9) | 96.3 (95.0–97.3) | 60.4 (50.6–69.4) | 96.4 (95.1–97.3) | 93.3 (91.8–94.6) |
| CHAID | 51.8 (42.1–61.4) | 98.6 (97.7–99.1) | 77.0 (65.5–85.7) | 95.7 (94.3–96.7) | 94.6 (93.2–95.8) |
| LASSO | 40.9 (31.8–50.7) | 99.3 (98.6–99.7) | 84.9 (71.9–92.8) | 94.8 (93.4–95.9) | 94.4 (93.0–95.5) |
| PPV | |||||
| C5.0 | 43.6 (34.3–53.4) | 99.1 (98.3–99.5) | 81.4 (68.7–89.9) | 95.0 (93.6–96.1) | 94.4 (93.0–95.5) |
| CaRT | 40.9 (31.8–50.7) | 99.3 (98.6–99.7) | 84.9 (71.9–92.8) | 94.8 (93.4–95.9) | 94.4 (93.0–95.5) |
| CHAID‡ | 42.7 (33.5–52.5) | 99.3 (98.6–99.7) | 85.5 (72.8–93.1) | 94.9 (93.5–96.1) | 94.5 (93.1–95.7) |
| LASSO | 40.9 (31.8–50.7) | 99.3 (98.6–99.7) | 84.9 (71.9–92.8) | 94.8 (93.4–95.9) | 94.4 (93.0–95.5) |
| Youden J statistic | |||||
| C5.0 | 85.5 (77.2–91.2) | 85.5 (83.4–87.5) | 35.3 (29.7–41.5) | 98.5 (97.4–99.1) | 85.5 (83.5–87.4) |
| CaRT | 80.9 (72.1–87.5) | 89.2 (87.2–90.8) | 40.8 (34.3–47.7) | 98.1 (97.0–98.8) | 88.5 (86.6–90.1) |
| CHAID | 52.7 (43.0–62.2) | 97.9 (96.9–98.6) | 69.9 (58.7–79.2) | 95.7 (94.4–96.8) | 94.1 (92.6–95.3) |
| LASSO‡ | 87.3 (79.2–92.6) | 85.4 (83.2–87.3) | 35.6 (29.9–41.6) | 98.6 (97.7–99.2) | 85.5 (83.5–87.4) |
Note: CaRT = classification and regression tree, CHAID = chi-square automated interaction detection, LASSO = least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, NPV = negative predictive value, PPV = positive predictive value.
↵* The misclassification rate metric was minimized, whereas the F1 score, PPV and Youden J statistic metrics were maximized.
↵† A dummy classifier that assumes all cases were type 2 diabetes would achieve an accuracy of 91.6%.
↵‡ Instances reported as final case definitions.