Table 3: Costs, utilities and other important parameters used in the model

Fibrosis distribution
Treatment status and fibrosis stage	Base estimate	Lower limit (-25%)	Upper limit (+25%)	Probability distribution
Treatment-naive¹⁶
F0	0.08	0.06	0.1	Beta (58.8-676.2)
F1	0.20	0.15	0.25	Beta (51-204)
F2	0.35	0.2625	0.4375	Beta (41.25-76.61)
F3	0.21	0.1575	0.2625	Beta (50.35-189.41)
F4	0.16	0.12	0.2	Beta (53.6-281.4)
Treatment-experienced¹⁷
F0	0.04	0.03	0.05	Beta (61.4-1473.6)
F1	0.13	0.0975	0.1625	Beta (55.55-371.76)
F2	0.38	0.285	0.475	Beta (39.3-64.12)
F3	0.23	0.1725	0.2875	Beta (49.05-164.21)
F4	0.22	0.165	0.275	Beta (49.7-176.2)
Natural history parameters
Description	Base estimate	Lower limit (95% CI)	Upper limit (95% CI)	Probability distribution
Annual probability for fibrosis progression
F0-F1¹⁸	0.117	0.104	0.13	Beta (285.9-2158.3)
F1-F2¹⁸	0.085	0.075	0.096	Beta (218.5-2351.6)
F2-F3¹⁸	0.12	0.109	0.133	Beta (299.8-2198.6)
F3-F4¹⁸	0.116	0.104	0.129	Beta (281.4-2144.7)
Genotype 3 accelerated fibrosis progression (OR)¹⁹	1.52	1.12	2.07	Exp [normal (0.419-0.154)]
Annual probability for cirrhosis progression
F4-decompensated (non-SVR)⁵	0.035	0.027	0.043	Beta (73.8-2036.1)
F4-decompensated (SVR)⁵	0.002	0.0001	0.005	Beta (1.77-884.3)
F4-HCC (non-SVR)⁵	0.024	0.018	0.031	Beta (45.9-1865.3)
F4-HCC (SVR)⁵	0.005	0.001	0.009	Beta (6.21-1236.5)
Annual probability for liver transplantation²⁰
From decompensated cirrhosis	0.033	0.017	0.049	Beta (16.42-481.19)
From HCC	0.033	0.017	0.049	Beta (16.42-481.19)
Chronic hepatitis C-related mortality
Description	Base estimate	Lower limit (-25%)	Upper limit (+25%)	Probability distribution
HCC²¹	0.411	0.31	0.51	Beta (38.6-55.3)
Decompensated cirrhosis²²	0.216	0.162	0.27	Beta (49.96-181.3)
Liver transplant (first yr)²³	0.142	0.124	0.159	Beta (213.4-1289.7)
Liver transplant (> 1 yr)²³	0.034	0.024	0.043	Beta (44.6-1268.1)
Therapy cost, Can$
PAR/RIT+ OMB + DAS (Holkira Pak) 12 wk²⁴	55 860	41 895	69 825	-
LDV + SOF (Harvoni) 12 wk²⁴	67 000	50 250	83 750	-
DCV (Daklinza) 12 wk²⁴	36 000	27 000	45 000	-
SOF(Sovaldi) 12 wk²⁴	55 000	41 250	68 750	-
SIM (Galexos) 12 wk²⁴	36 502	27 377	45 628	-
PR 24 wk²⁴	9500	7125	11 875	-
Telaprevir (Incivek) Pegylated interferon/ribavirin 24 to 48 wk²⁴	44 468-53 968	33 351-40 476	55 585-67 460	-
Boceprevir Pegylated interferon alfa-2b/ribavirin 24 to 44 wk²⁴	31 831-59 972	23 873-44 979	39 789 -74 965	-
Chronic hepatitis C-related utilities
Canadian population average²⁵
Age 45-54 yr	0.86	0.83	0.88	Beta (459.34-74.78)
Utility for CHC infection-related health states²⁶
Non-irrhosis	0.73	0.69	0.77	Beta (358.98-132.77)
Compensated cirrhosis	0.69	0.65	0.73	Beta (368.29-165.46)
Hepatocellular carcinoma	0.69	0.65	0.73	Beta (368.29-165.46)
Decompensated cirrhosis²⁷	0.65	0.61	0.69	Beta (369.04-198.71)
Post-transplant	0.75	0.70	0.79	Beta (224.25-74.75)
Noncirrhosis on-treatment (apply only to regimens contains pegylated interferon or ribavirin)	0.71	0.67	0.75	Beta (364.76-148.99)
Noncirrhosis viral clearance	0.80	0.76	0.84	Beta (319.2-79.8)
Compensated cirrhosis on-treatment (apply only to regimens contains pegylated interferon or ribavirin)	0.67	0.63	0.71	Beta (369.67-182.08)
Compensated cirrhosis viral clearance	0.76	0.72	0.80	Beta (345.8-109.2)
One-time disutility associated with adverse event^28,29
Anemia	-0.03	-0.0375	-0.0225	-Beta (62.05-2006.28)
Depression	-0.0625	-0.0781	-0.0468	-Beta (59.94-899.06)
Rash	-0.0213	-0.0267	-0.0159	-Beta (62.62-2006.28)

Note: For descriptions of treatment regimens, see Table 1. CI = confidence interval, OR = odd ratio, SVR = sustained viral response.