| Variable | Separate model estimate (95% CI) | Joint model estimate (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Mixed model | ||
| Starting CD4 cell count, cells/μL*† | ||
| Reference patient* | 21.88 (21.47 to 22.29) | 22.02 (21.60 to 22.43) |
| Female | –0.20 (–0.49 to 0.08) | –0.24 (–0.51 to 0.04) |
| Injection drug use† | –1.16 (–1.50 to –0.82) | –1.12 (–1.49 to –0.78) |
| Age (per 10 yr) | –0.19 (–0.29 to –0.08) | –0.18 (–0.29 to –0.07) |
| Log10 HIV RNA (per log copy) | –1.51 (–1.62 to –1.40) | –1.51 (–1.62 to –1.40) |
| Cohort (reference ROC)‡ | ||
| EuroSIDA | 1.55 (0.88 to 2.21) | 1.36 (0.69 to 2.03) |
| HOMER | –0.77 (–1.32 to –0.23) | –0.98 (–1.53 to –0.43) |
| SHCS | 1.10 (0.66 to 1.55) | 0.95 (0.50 to 1.39) |
| UK CHIC | 0.82 (0.41 to 1.24) | 0.71 (0.29 to 1.13) |
| Viral subtype (reference subtype B) | ||
| A | –0.69 (–1.20 to –0.18) | –0.63 (–1.12 to –0.14) |
| AE | –0.24 (–0.88 to 0.40) | –0.20 (–0.81 to 0.40) |
| AG | –0.43 (–0.98 to 0.11) | –0.39 (–0.91 to 0.13) |
| C | –0.78 (–1.18 to –0.38) | –0.71 (–1.10 to –0.33) |
| G§ | –0.58 (–1.43 to 0.27) | – |
| African ancestry | –1.57 (–1.91 to –1.23) | –1.60 (–1.94 to –1.25) |
| Rate of CD4 cell count decline, (cells/μL)/yr*† | ||
| Reference patient* | –1.23 (–1.27 to –1.19) | –1.29 (–1.34 to –1.25) |
| Female | –0.08 (–0.19 to 0.02) | –0.13 (–0.23 to –0.02) |
| Injection drug use† | –0.10 (–0.22 to 0.02) | –0.16 (–0.28 to –0.04) |
| Age (per 10 yr) | –0.09 (–0.13 to –0.05) | –0.11 (–0.15 to –0.07) |
| Log10 HIV RNA (per log copy) | –0.28 (–0.32 to –0.23) | –0.30 (–0.34 to –0.26) |
| Subtype (reference subtype B) | ||
| A | 0.06 (–0.13 to 0.25) | 0.08 (–0.10 to 0.26) |
| AE | –0.03 (–0.26 to 0.21) | –0.01 (–0.24 to 0.21) |
| AG | 0.17 (–0.04 to 0.39) | 0.17 (–0.04 to 0.38) |
| C | 0.11 (–0.04 to 0.27) | 0.14 (0.00 to 0.29) |
| G§ | 0.02 (–0.32 to 0.36) | – |
| African ancestry | 0.37 (0.25 to 0.50) | 0.29 (0.17 to 0.42) |
| AFT model | ||
| Reference patient* | 1.60 (1.44 to 1.76) | 1.81 (1.62 to 2.00) |
| Female | –0.21 (–0.31 to –0.11) | –0.26 (–0.38 to –0.15) |
| Injection drug use† | 0.04 (–0.08 to 0.17) | –0.05 (–0.19 to 0.10) |
| Age (per 10 yr) | –0.07 (–0.11 to –0.03) | –0.11 (–0.15 to –0.06) |
| Log10 HIV RNA | –0.37 (–0.41 to –0.32) | –0.54 (–0.60 to –0.48) |
| Cohort (reference ROC)‡ | ||
| EuroSIDA | 0.01 (–0.24 to 0.26) | 0.05 (–0.23 to 0.33) |
| HOMER | –0.14 (–0.35 to 0.07) | –0.10 (–0.34 to 0.14) |
| SHCS | –0.10 (–0.28 to 0.07) | –0.02 (–0.21 to 0.18) |
| UK CHIC | 0.54 (0.37 to 0.71) | 0.62 (0.43 to 0.81) |
| Calendar time (per 10 yr) | –0.66 (–0.78 to –0.53) | –0.34 (–0.47 to –0.21) |
| African ancestry | –0.10 (–0.21 to 0.02) | –0.33 (–0.47 to –0.19) |
| CD4 cell count(square root) | 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13) | 0.02 (0.00 to 0.04) |
Note: EuroSIDA is a prospective observational cohort study in 33 European countries and Israel and Argentina. HOMER = HAART Observational Medical Evaluation and Research study, SHCS = Swiss HIV Cohort Study, UK CHIC = UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study. *Covariate adjustment implies a reference patient treated in a Canadian cohort, male, 35 years old, not infected through injection drug use, with a starting HIV RNA of 4 log 10 copies, infected with viral subtype B and not of African ancestry. †The most likely mode of HIV transmission. ‡Rest of Canada (ROC; Calgary, Hamilton, Montréal, Ottawa and Toronto cohorts). §A joint model including patients with viral subtype G gave implausible parameter estimates.