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Research

Anticoagulation and population risk of stroke and death in incident atrial fibrillation: a population-based cohort study

Amy Y.X. Yu, Shaun Malo, Stephen Wilton, Ratika Parkash, Lawrence W. Svenson and Michael D. Hill
January 07, 2016 4 (1) E1-E6; DOI: https://doi.org/10.9778/cmajo.20150096
Amy Y.X. Yu
Department of Clinical Neurosciences (Yu), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance and Assessment Branch (Malo, Svenson), Alberta Health, Edmonton, Alta.; Libin Cardiovascular Institute (Wilton), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Cardiology (Parkash), Queen Elizabeth II Health Sciences Center, Halifax, NS; School of Public Health (Svenson), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Departments of Clinical Neurosciences and Community Health Sciences (Hill), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.
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Shaun Malo
Department of Clinical Neurosciences (Yu), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance and Assessment Branch (Malo, Svenson), Alberta Health, Edmonton, Alta.; Libin Cardiovascular Institute (Wilton), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Cardiology (Parkash), Queen Elizabeth II Health Sciences Center, Halifax, NS; School of Public Health (Svenson), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Departments of Clinical Neurosciences and Community Health Sciences (Hill), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.
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Stephen Wilton
Department of Clinical Neurosciences (Yu), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance and Assessment Branch (Malo, Svenson), Alberta Health, Edmonton, Alta.; Libin Cardiovascular Institute (Wilton), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Cardiology (Parkash), Queen Elizabeth II Health Sciences Center, Halifax, NS; School of Public Health (Svenson), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Departments of Clinical Neurosciences and Community Health Sciences (Hill), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.
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Ratika Parkash
Department of Clinical Neurosciences (Yu), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance and Assessment Branch (Malo, Svenson), Alberta Health, Edmonton, Alta.; Libin Cardiovascular Institute (Wilton), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Cardiology (Parkash), Queen Elizabeth II Health Sciences Center, Halifax, NS; School of Public Health (Svenson), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Departments of Clinical Neurosciences and Community Health Sciences (Hill), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.
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Lawrence W. Svenson
Department of Clinical Neurosciences (Yu), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance and Assessment Branch (Malo, Svenson), Alberta Health, Edmonton, Alta.; Libin Cardiovascular Institute (Wilton), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Cardiology (Parkash), Queen Elizabeth II Health Sciences Center, Halifax, NS; School of Public Health (Svenson), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Departments of Clinical Neurosciences and Community Health Sciences (Hill), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.
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Michael D. Hill
Department of Clinical Neurosciences (Yu), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance and Assessment Branch (Malo, Svenson), Alberta Health, Edmonton, Alta.; Libin Cardiovascular Institute (Wilton), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Cardiology (Parkash), Queen Elizabeth II Health Sciences Center, Halifax, NS; School of Public Health (Svenson), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Departments of Clinical Neurosciences and Community Health Sciences (Hill), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.
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    Figure 1

    Cox survival curve for all stroke and death, with anticoagulation as a static covariate.

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    Table 1: Baseline characteristics
    CharacteristicAll patients
    (n = 10 745)
    Primary prevention
    (n = 9568)
    Secondary prevention
    (n = 1177)
    Underwent anticoagulation therapyDid not undergo therapyUnderwent anticoagulation therapyDid not undergo therapyUnderwent anticoagulation therapyDid not undergo therapy
    Participants, no. (%)7358 (68.5)3387 (31.5)6497 (67.9)3071 (32.1)861 (73.2)316 (26.8)
    Age, yr, median (IQR)74 (17)70 (27)74 (18)68 (27)78 (14)83 (15)
    Male sex, no. (%)4149 (56.4)1785 (52.7)3710 (57.1)1638 (53.3)439 (51.0)147 (46.5)
    Hypertension, no. (%)3461 (47.0)1333 (39.4)2991 (46.0)1168 (38.0)470 (54.6)165 (52.2)
    Diabetes, no. (%)1833 (24.9)645 (19.0)1585 (24.4)546 (17.8)248 (28.8)99 (31.3)
    Ischemic stroke and/or transient ischemic attack, no. (%)843 (11.5)301 (8.9)00843 (97.9)301 (95.3)
    Ischemic stroke, no. (%)561 (7.6)186 (5.5)00561 (65.2)186 (58.9)
    Hemorrhagic stroke, no. (%)34 (0.5)25 (0.7)0034 (3.9)25 (7.9)
    CHADS 2 score, no. (%)
    01553 (21.1)1140 (33.7)1551 (23.9)1138 (37.1)2 (0.2)2 (0.6)
    12550 (34.7)1089 (32.2)2544 (39.2)1082 (35.2)6 (0.7)7 (2.2)
    22029 (27.6)709 (20.9)1935 (29.8)672 (21.9)94 (10.9)37 (11.7)
    3795 (10.8)266 (7.9)445 (6.8)168 (5.5)350 (40.7)98 (31.0)
    4354 (4.8)153 (4.5)22 (0.3)11 (0.4)332 (38.6)142 (44.9)
    576 (1.0)27 (0.8)0076 (8.8)27 (8.5)
    61 (0)3 (0)001 (0)3 (0.9)

    Note: CHADS2 = congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 yr, diabetes mellitus and prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, IQR = interquartile range.

      • View popup
      Table 2: Outcomes according to anticoagulation status
      Subgroup; outcomeUnderwent anticoagulation therapyDid not undergo anticoagulation therapyHR (95% CI)†
      Events, no.Event rate (95% CI)*Events, no.Event rate (95% CI)*
      All patients (n = 10 745)
      All stroke and death149273.7 (70.0-77.7)1605112.6 (107.0-118.3)0.70 (0.62-0.72)
      Ischemic stroke23711.8 (10.3-13.5)26318.0 (15.8-20.4)0.69 (0.58-0.82)
      Hemorrhagic stroke562.8 (2.1-3.7)221.5 (1.0-2.4)1.92 (1.17-3.16)
      All stroke27914.0 (12.3-15.8)27619.0 (16.8-21.5)0.77 (0.65-0.91)
      Death133863.8 (60.4-67.4)1478102.0 (96.8-107.4)0.67 (0.62-0.72)
      Primary prevention cohort (n = 9568)
      All stroke and death126570.6 (66.7-74.7)1361103.7 (98.2-109.5)0.70 (0.65-0.76)
      Ischemic stroke1719.7 (8.3-11.4)21615.9 (13.8-18.3)0.62 (0.51-0.76)
      Hemorrhagic stroke412.3 (1.7-3.3)191.4 (0.9-2.3)1.71 (0.98-2.96)
      All stroke20311.7 (10.1-13.5)22716.9 (14.7-19.3)0.71 (0.58-0.85)
      Death114961.9 (58.3-65.7)124894.2 (89.0-99.7)0.68 (0.63-0.74)
      Secondary prevention (n = 1177)
      All stroke and death227103.9 (90.7-120.1)244190.7 (167.2-217.8)0.55 (0.46-0.66)
      Ischemic stroke6631.0 (23.9-41.5)4737.1 (27.0-50.9)0.89 (0.61-1.30)
      Hemorrhagic stroke156.4 (3.6-13.2)32.2 (0.42-8.9)2.96 (0.86-10.25)
      All stroke7635.5 (27.9-46.4)4938.6 (28.4-52.7)0.97 (0.67-1.39)
      Death18981.5 (70.3-95.7)230168.2 (146.9-192.8)0.49 (0.40-0.59)

      Note: CI = confidence interval, HR = hazard ratio.

      *Adjusted event rate per 1000 person-years.

      †Adjusted for sex and CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 yr, diabetes mellitus and prior stroke or transient ischemic attack) score.

        • View popup
        Table 3: Inpatient cohort (n = 3598) with Elixhauser Comorbidity Index adjustment using anticoagulation as a time-dependent covariate
        OutcomeHR (95% CI)*
        All stroke and death0.61 (0.55-0.67)
        Ischemic stroke0.84 (0.64-1.11)
        Hemorrhagic stroke2.18 (0.97-4.89)
        All stroke0.95 (0.73-1.23)
        Death0.57 (0.52-0.64)

        Note: CI = confidence interval, HR = hazard ratio.*Adjusted for sex and CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 yr, diabetes mellitus and prior stroke or transient ischemic attack) score.

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        30 Mar 2016
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        Anticoagulation and population risk of stroke and death in incident atrial fibrillation: a population-based cohort study
        Amy Y.X. Yu, Shaun Malo, Stephen Wilton, Ratika Parkash, Lawrence W. Svenson, Michael D. Hill
        Jan 2016, 4 (1) E1-E6; DOI: 10.9778/cmajo.20150096

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        Anticoagulation and population risk of stroke and death in incident atrial fibrillation: a population-based cohort study
        Amy Y.X. Yu, Shaun Malo, Stephen Wilton, Ratika Parkash, Lawrence W. Svenson, Michael D. Hill
        Jan 2016, 4 (1) E1-E6; DOI: 10.9778/cmajo.20150096
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