Current and predicted prevalence of obesity in Canada: a trend analysis

Laurie K. Twells; Deborah M. Gregory; Jacinta Reddigan; William K. Midodzi

doi:10.9778/cmajo.20130016

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Figure 1:
(A) Prevalence of adults classified as overweight or obese in Canada from 1985 to 2011, by weight category: overweight (BMI 25.0–29.9), obese (BMI ≥ 30.0), obese class I (BMI 30.0–34.9), obese class II (BMI 35.0–39.9) and obese class III (BMI ≥ 40.0). (B) Percentage change in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Canada, by weight category, using 1985 data as a baseline. BMI = body mass index.
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Figure 2:
Predictions of future prevalence of adult obesity in Canada, from 2013 to 2019, by weight category: normal (BMI 18.5–24.9), overweight (BMI 25.0–29.9), obese (BMI ≥ 30.0), obese class I (BMI 30.0–34.9), obese class II (BMI 35.0–39.9) and obese class III (BMI ≥ 40.0). BMI = body mass index.

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Table 1: Provincial and national prevalence (%) of body mass index categories in adults (≥ 18 yr) and percentage changes for 2000/01 and 2011

*BMI category, year**	Provincial										National
*BMI category, year**	NL	PEI	NS	NB	QC	ON	MB	SK	AB	BC	National
Normal
2000/01	39.0	40.5	42.1	41.9	52.4	47.9	45.5	43.0	47.6	53.8	49.0
2011	29.9	41.8	37.0	38.7	47.1	45.4	40.0	39.0	45.3	51.4	45.6
% change	–23.3	3.2	–12.1	–7.6	–10.1	–5.2	–12.1	–9.3	–4.8	–4.5	–6.9
Overweight
2000/01	38.2	38.9	34.9	35.0	31.9	33.6	34.7	35.0	33.9	30.7	33.1
2011	41.8	34.3	37.5	34.3	33.3	33.7	36.5	37.3	33.0	31.3	33.6
% change	9.4	–11.8	7.4	–2.0	4.4	0.3	5.2	6.6	–2.7	2.0	1.5
Obese
2000/01	21.7	19.6	21.4	21.4	12.7	15.6	18.4	20.2	16.4	12.5	15.2
2011	27.7	23.5	23.7	25.1	16.8	18.4	21.6	22.1	19.3	14.5	18.3
% change	27.6	19.9	10.7	17.3	32.3	17.9	17.4	9.4	17.7	16.0	20.4
Obese class I
2000/01	16.1	14.7	14.7	16.0	9.5	11.5	13.0	14.4	12.2	9.3	11.3
2011	20.5	18.0	15.6	16.2	13.1	12.8	15.2	15.9	13.5	10.7	13.1
% change	27.3	22.4	6.1	1.3	37.9	11.3	16.9	10.4	10.7	15.1	15.9
Obese class II
2000/01	4.1	3.3	4.8	3.7	2.4	2.9	3.8	4.3	2.9	2.2	2.8
2011	4.6	3.6	5.8	6.1	2.5	4.0	4.0	4.3	4.3	2.6	3.6
% change	12.2	9.1	20.8	64.9	4.2	37.9	5.3	0.0	48.3	18.2	28.6
Obese class III
2000/01	1.5	1.6	1.9	1.8	0.8	1.2	1.7	1.5	1.2	0.9	1.2
2011	2.6	2.5	2.3	2.8	1.2	1.7	2.4	2.0	1.4	1.2	1.6
% change	73.3	56.3	21.1	55.6	50.0	41.7	41.2	33.3	16.7	33.3	33.3

Note: BMI = body mass index. Data source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Community Health Survey, Share File, 2000/01 (20–64 years), 2003, 2005, 2007–2008, 2009–2010 and 2011 (compiled by the Newfoundland and Labrador Centre for Health Information). *BMI categories: normal (BMI 18.5–24.9), overweight (BMI 25.0–29.9), obese (BMI ≥ 30.0), obese class I (BMI 30.0–34.9), obese class II (BMI 35.0–39.9) and obese class III (BMI ≥ 40.0).

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Table 2: National and provincial prevalence (%) of body mass index categories in adults (≥ 18 yr) and percentage changes for 2000/01 and 2011, by sex

*BMI category, year, sex**	Provincial										National
*BMI category, year, sex**	NL	PEI	NS	NB	QC	ON	MB	SK	AB	BC	National
Normal
2000/01
Women	45.1	43.7	49.8	47.1	58.1	54.6	40.6	50.7	55.0	60.1	55.4
Men	33.0	33.7	34.6	36.9	46.9	41.5	50.8	35.8	40.9	47.7	42.9
2011
Women	36.8	52.7	41.9	41.5	53.0	51.4	46.0	45.9	54.5	57.4	51.8
Men	22.9	30.9	31.8	35.9	41.2	39.2	34.0	32.3	36.8	45.4	39.3
% change women	–18.4	20.6	–15.9	–11.9	–8.8	–5.9	13.3	–9.5	–0.9	–4.5	–6.5
% change men	–30.6	–8.3	–8.1	–2.7	–12.2	–5.5	–33.1	–9.8	–10.0	–4.8	–8.4
Overweight
2000/01
Women	32.1	33.5	28.4	29.0	24.8	26.6	28.6	27.4	26.4	22.8	26.0
Men	44.1	44.0	41.4	40.7	38.7	40.3	40.4	41.9	40.7	38.2	39.9
2011
Women	37.2	25.3	33.5	30.8	26.6	27.6	30.5	30.7	24.8	23.7	27.1
Men	46.4	43.3	41.8	38.0	39.9	39.9	42.4	43.8	40.5	38.9	40.1
% change women	15.9	–24.5	18.0	6.2	7.3	3.8	6.6	12.0	–6.1	3.9	4.2
% change men	5.2	–1.6	1.0	–6.6	3.1	–1.0	5.0	4.5	–0.5	1.8	0.5
Obese
2000/01
Women	21.1	17.1	19.7	21.6	12.1	14.5	18.1	18.7	15.2	11.9	14.4
Men	22.2	21.9	23.1	21.3	13.3	16.8	18.6	21.5	17.4	13.0	16.1
2011
Women	25.3	21.5	21.8	25.0	15.7	17.3	21.2	20.8	16.7	13.9	17.1
Men	30.2	25.7	25.8	25.3	17.9	19.7	22.1	23.4	21.7	15.0	19.5
% change women	19.9	25.7	10.7	15.7	29.8	19.3	17.1	11.2	9.9	16.8	18.8
% change men	36.0	17.4	11.7	18.8	34.6	17.3	18.8	8.8	24.7	15.4	21.1
Obese class I
2000/01
Women	14.2	12.1	12.9	15.6	8.4	10.0	11.6	13.1	10.5	8.2	9.9
Men	17.9	17.2	16.4	16.3	10.5	13.1	14.2	15.6	12.9	10.4	12.6
2011
Women	17.0	16.4	13.8	15.4	11.4	10.9	14.3	12.7	11.0	9.7	11.3
Men	24.2	19.6	17.6	17.0	14.9	14.8	16.2	18.9	15.8	11.7	15.0
% change women	19.7	35.5	7.0	–1.3	35.7	9.0	23.3	–3.1	4.8	18.3	14.1
% change men	35.2	14.0	7.3	4.3	41.9	13.0	14.1	21.2	22.5	12.5	19.0
Obese class II
2000/01
Women	4.7	3.4†	4.4	3.7	2.7	2.9	4.2	3.9	3.0	2.6	3.0
Men	3.5†	3.2†	5.2	3.7	2.1	2.8	3.3†	4.7	2.9	1.8	2.7
2011
Women	5.2†	—‡	5.8	5.8†	2.8	4.2	4.0†	6.2†	3.9	2.5	3.8
Men	4.0†	—‡	5.8†	6.5†	2.1	3.7	4.0†	2.5†	4.5†	2.7†	3.4
% change women	10.6	—‡	31.8	56.8	3.7	44.8	–4.8	59.0	30.0	–3.9	26.67
% change men	14.3	—‡	11.5	75.7	0.0	32.1	21.2	–46.8	55.2	50.0	25.9
Obese class III
2000/01
Women	2.2†	—‡	2.3	2.3†	1	1.6	2.3†	1.8	1.8	1.1	1.5
Men	—‡	1.5†	1.4†	1.3†	0.7†	0.9	1.1†	1.3†	0.7†	0.8†	0.9
2011
Women	3†	—‡	2.2†	3.8†	1.4	2.1	2.9†	1.9†	1.8†	1.7†	1.9
Men	—‡	—‡	2.5†	—‡	1.0†	1.2	1.9†	2.0†	1.1†	—‡	1.2
% change women	36.4†	—‡	–4.3†	65.2†	40.0	31.3	26.1†	5.6†	0.0†	54.5†	26.7
% change men	—‡	—‡	78.6†	—‡	42.9†	33.3	72.7†	53.8†	57.1†	—‡	33.3

Note: BMI = body mass index. Data source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Community Health Survey, Share File, 2000/01 (20–64 years), 2003, 2005, 2007–2008, 2009–2010, and 2011 for age 18 years and older (compiled by the Newfoundland and Labrador, Centre for Health Information). *BMI categories: normal (BMI 18.5–24.9), overweight (BMI 25.0–29.9), obese (BMI ≥ 30.0), obese class I (BMI 30.0–34.9), obese class II (BMI 35.0–39.9) and obese class III (BMI ≥ 40.0).  †Data with a coefficient of variation from 16.6% to 33.3%; these data should be interpreted with caution.  ‡Data suppressed because of extreme sampling variation.

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Table 3: National and provincial prevalence (%) of body mass index categories in adults (≥ 18 yr), and percentage changes for 2000/01 and 2011, by age (yr)

*BMI category, year, age**	Provincial										National
*BMI category, year, age**	NL	PEI	NS	NB	QC	ON	MB	SK	AB	BC	National
Normal
2000/2001
18–39	44.3	46.2	49.2	47.8	59.9	54.6	52.4	50.0	53.4	58.5	55.4
40–59	33.7	36.3	37.0	37.6	47.2	42.3	39.9	38.1	42.6	50.2	44.0
≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
2011
18–39	32.3	58.9	46.5	46.9	56.1	53.5	47.0	47.2	52.6	60.5	54.0
40–59	28.1	34.9	31.3	35.8	42.5	41.2	37.1	34.6	39.4	47.4	41.2
≥ 60	30.0	33.0	34.2	33.1	41.5	38.9	34.2	33.2	40.3	44.0	39.6
% change 18–39	–27.1	27.5	–5.5	–1.9	–6.3	–2.0	–10.3	–5.6	–1.5	3.4	–2.5
% change 40–59	–16.6	–3.9	–15.4	–4.8	–10.0	–2.6	–7.0	–9.2	–7.5	–5.6	–6.4
% change ≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Overweight
2000/2001
18–39	33.9	35.5	30.6	32.5	25.7	28.8	30.0	31.7	29.5	26.7	28.3
40–59	42.6	41.1	37.7	36.5	36.2	37.8	38.3	37.3	37.1	33.7	36.8
≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
2011
18–39	34.7	23.8	34.2	27.7	39.5	41.8	48.7	50.9	43.5	35.0	41.8
40–59	45.7	37.3	37.5	34.9	55.6	57.7	62.5	63.9	59.5	50.8	57.5
≥ 60	44.1	41.7	41.5	41.6	56.5	59.8	65.3	65.6	58.0	54.1	58.9
% change 18–39	2.4	–33.0	11.8	–14.8	53.7	45.1	62.3	60.6	47.5	31.1	47.7
% change 40–59	7.3	–9.2	–0.5	–4.4	53.6	52.6	63.2	71.3	60.4	50.7	56.3
% change ≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Obese
2000/2001
18–39	20.1	16.5	17.8	17.6	10.5	12.6	15.9	15.0	13.8	10.1	12.5
40–59	23.0	22.3	24.5	24.6	14.5	18.2	20.9	23.8	19.3	14.3	17.8
≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
2011
18–39	32.1	17.1†	16.2	21.6	13.4	14.1	16.6	17.7	15.3	10.8	14.3
40–59	25.9	27.4	30.8	28.0	19.4	22.1	27.5	25.5	22.9	17.2	21.7
≥ 60	25.5	25.0	22.5	25.0	17.8	19.6	20.8	23.8	21.1	15.6	19.3
% change 18–39	59.7	3.6%†	–9.0	22.7	27.6	11.9	4.4	18.0	10.9	6.9	14.4
% change 40–59	12.6	22.9	25.7	13.8	33.8	21.4	31.6	7.1	18.7	20.3	21.9
% change ≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Obese class l
2000/2001
18–39	14.3	11.6	11.8	12.4	7.7	9.3	11.9	10.2	9.9	7.7	9.2
40–59	17.6	17.1	17.4	18.6	11.0	13.4	13.9	17.1	14.9	10.6	13.0
≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
2011
18–39	25.2	12.2	10.8†	11.8	10.4	9.6	11.1	11.1	11.5	7.5	10.1
40–59	16.3	21.3†	19.2	18.2	15.2	14.9	19.9	19.6	15.2	12.7	15.2
≥ 60	21.3	19.6	16.2	18.3	14.0	14.7	14.6	17.5	14.8	12.3	14.6
% change 18–39	76.22	5.17	–8.47†	–4.84	35.06	3.23	–6.72	8.82	16.16	–2.60	9.78
% change 40–59	–7.39	24.56†	10.34	–2.15	38.18	11.19	43.17	14.62	2.01	19.81	16.92
% change ≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Obese class ll
2000/2001
18–39	4.5†	3.1†	4.0†	3.6†	2.1	2.3	2.7	3.4	3.0	1.6	2.4
40–59	3.7	3.7†	5.4	3.9	2.6	3.4	4.9	5.2	2.8	2.7	3.2
≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
2011
18–39	4.7†	—‡	3.7†	6.0†	1.9†	3.0	3.4†	4.1†	2.6†	1.7†	2.7
40–59	5.7†	—‡	8.5	7.7†	2.9†	5.2	4.5†	3.8†	6.0†	3.7†	4.7
≥ 60	—‡	—‡	4.4†	3.9†	2.5	3.5	4.2†	5.4†	5.1	2.1	3.3
Obese class lll
2000/2001
18–39	1.3†	—‡	2.1†	1.7†	—‡	1.0	1.3†	1.4†	0.9†	0.8†	1.0
40–59	1.8†	1.5†	1.8†	2.0†	0.9†	1.5	2.0†	1.5†	1.6	1.0	1.3
≥ 60	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
2011
18–39	—‡	—‡	1.8	3.9†	1.1†	1.5†	—‡	2.5†	1.2†	1.6†	1.5
40–59	—‡	—‡	3.1†	—‡	1.3†	2.0	3.0†	2.2†	1.8†	0.9†	1.8
≥ 60	—‡	—‡	—‡	2.7†	1.2†	1.4†	2.0†	—‡	1.3†	—‡	1.4

Note: BMI = body mass index, NA = not applicable.  Data source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Community Health Survey, Share File, 2000/01 (20–64 years), 2003, 2005, 2007–2008, 2009–2010, and 2011 for 18+ years (compiled by the Newfoundland and Labrador, Centre for Health Information). *BMI categories: normal (BMI 18.5–24.9), overweight (BMI 25.0–29.9), obese (BMI ≥ 30.0), obese class I (BMI 30.0–34.9), obese class II (BMI 35.0–39.9) and obese class III (BMI ≥ 40.0). †Data with a coefficient of variation from 16.6%–33.3% should be interpreted with caution.  ‡Data suppressed because of extreme sampling variation.