| Parameter used in model | Value, % | Low range of sensitivity analyses, % | High range of sensitivity analyses, % | Distribution used in probabilistic analysis | Reference nos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transition probabilities to and from heart failure | |||||
| Monthly incidence of heart failure with no recurrent ACS | 0.02 | 0 | 0.06 | Beta | 17 |
| Heart failure incidence in month after ACS | |||||
| Without stent thrombosis | 4.60 | 3.9 | 5.3 | Beta | 17 |
| With stent thrombosis | 20 | 15.5 | 24.6 | Beta | 18 |
| Annual probability of transition from heart failure | 57.40 | 48.8 | 66.0 | Beta | 19 |
| Incidence of important clinical events | |||||
| Incidence of recurrent ACS over 12 mo | 7.48 | 7.1 | 7.9 | Beta | 4-6 |
| Proportion of recurrent ACS due to stent thrombosis | 20 | 0 | 49.7 | Beta | 4-6 |
| Annual incidence of major bleeding | 3.9 | 0 | 25.5 | Beta | 4-6 |
| Annual incidence of discontinuation | |||||
| Clopidogrel | 12.4 | 12.0 | 12.8 | Beta | 4-6 |
| Prasugrel | 14.1 | 13.3 | 14.9 | Beta | 4, 5 |
| Ticagrelor | 13.9 | 13.4 | 14.4 | Beta | 4, 6 |
| Annual incidence of minor adverse effects | |||||
| Clopidogrel | 14 | 13.4 | 14.5 | Beta | 4-6 |
| Prasugrel | 14.5 | 13.7 | 15.3 | Beta | 4, 5 |
| Ticagrelor | 19.8 | 19.0 | 20.6 | Beta | 4, 6 |
Note: ACS = acute coronary syndrome.